Monthly Archives: June 2017

2016.06.28 – Convective Forecast: Increased Risk of Strong Thunderstorms / Unwetter Vorhersage: Erhöhte Gefahr vor Unwettern

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Thunderstorms are possible throughout all of central Europe today, fueled by the temperatures that will reach around 30°C in most parts, and kicked off by a cold front moving in from the west / southwest. Especially in the eastern and southern parts of the forecast area, the potential for strong thunderstorms is given.
The risk of severe thunderstorms is highest in Slovenia, where there may be (in the order of likeliness) torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and the potential for tornadoes given. To a lesser degree, the risk of severe storm gusts is also given in Slovenia.
Throughout most of the parts labeled “increased risk of strong thunderstorms”, the main risks will be severe wind gusts (up to 100km/h likely), Hail (up to 3cm in diameter likely) and heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding.
For the areas to the west, the main risk is torrential rainfall and the potential for (flash)flooding.

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Gewitter sind heute in ganz Mitteleuropa möglich, angeheizt durch die Wärme (vielerorts werden heute erneut um die 30°C erreicht), und ausgelöst durch eine sich aus Westen / Südwesten nähernde Kaltfront. Besonders in den östlichen und südlichen Teilen des Vorhersagegebiets besteht das Potential für Unwetter.
Die Gefahr vor Unwettern ist in Slowenien am höchsten. Dort besteht die Gefahr (sortiert nach absteigender Wahrscheinlichkeit) vor Starkregen, großem bis zu sehr großem Hagel, sowie dem Potential für Tornados. In geringerem Maße besteht auch in Slowenien die Gefahr vor Sturmböen.
In den Gebieten die mit “increased risk of strong thunderstorms” markiert wurden werden die Hauptgefahren Sturmböen (bis zu 100km/h zu erwarten), Hagel (bis zu 3cm in Durchmesser zu erwarten), sowie Starkregen mit der Gefahr vor Überflutungen sein.
In den Gegenden westlich davon geht die Hauptgefahr von Starkem Regen und damit einhergehenden Überflutungen aus.

 

Below is the convective forecast issued this morning.

Grün: Gewitter Möglich
Gelb: Gewitter Wahrscheinlich
Orange: Erhöhtes Potential für Unwetter

 

2017.06.27 – ESTOFEX Forecast & Thunderstorm Overview for Europe

(C) ESTOFEX European Storm Forecast Experiment. Forecast by DAFIS.

 

ESTOFEX decided to issue a level 2 for northeastern Spain and parts of France, with the main risks being severe wind gusts, excessive rainfall and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for N Spain, France, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, S Belgium, Luxemburg and the Czech Republic, with the main risks being severe wind gusts, large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was also issued for N Italy, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, with the main risks being severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation, as well as a

level 1 for E Ukraine and SW Russia, with the main risk being excessive precipitation.

 

Thunderstorms are likely throughout northern Spain, France and much of central Europe (except the Netherlands and northern Germany), and the Balkans today, as well as parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia.