Monthly Archives: November 2016

2016.11.25 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European windstorm overview, issued at 17:00UTC on November 25th, 2016.

There are currently two systems in the region.

Storm RENATE is currently located to the northeast of Iceland, with a central pressure of 981hPa at the last, 12UTC, analysis. Peak gusts currently exceed 110km/h, with the highest wind speeds currently over the North Sea as well as north of Iceland and along the coast of Greenland. The storm is already affecting Norway, but is forecast to move towards the east over the next 24 hours, and most of Scandinavia will be affected by RENATE’s storm field within this time, hence storm warnings have been issued for the North Sea Islands, Norway, Sweden, Finland and the coasts of some Baltic nations (see the warnings map below for details). Here are the peak gusts measured in relation to RENATE today:
148km/h – Juvvasshoe, Norway
117km/h – Ona Li, Norway
108km/h – Krakenes, Norway

A second, nameless storm is currently located over the northern Atlantic. Peak gusts in this system exceed 105km/h at this time, and the central pressure is 990hPa. The storm is expected to move towards the north and strengthen, and in a time period between 24 and 48 hours from now is affected to affect Iceland with its storm field, hence a storm warning has been issued for the island. Peak gusts may exceed 100km/h in Iceland when the storm strikes.

 

This is the ESC European windstorm outlook, issued at 17:00UTC on November 25th, 2016.

(For the time period up to T+48h please refer to the ESC European windstorm overview).

The second half of Sunday will be fairly calm, except for a storm field over the Baltic with peak gusts exceeding 95km/h and possibly windy conditions especially on the northwestern coast of Iceland.
No significant storm systems are expected for Monday as of now, although along the northern edge of a high-pressure area located over the North Sea there will be an area of increased wind speeds, possibly with some gusts over 80km/h affecting some North Sea Islands.
On Tuesday, a low pressure system is expected to form near Iceland, which is forecast to quickly intensify and start moving to the east. By 18UTC, ESC expects the system to pack peak gusts of over 125km/h and may affect the coast of Norway. At the same time, storm gusts are expected over the northern Atlantic between the low pressure near Iceland and the higher pressure further south, with gusts exceeding 120km/h.
On Wednesday, this storm field is expected to move across the UK and into the North Sea. The north of the UK should be ready for gusts over 105km/h, the coast of Norway may experience gusts over 110km/h a few hours later. The second storm, moving east from Iceland, will merge with an area of lower pressure already located over Scandinavia and so contribute to the large storm field over the UK and into the North Sea. In the evening, the storm field is forecast to move on to affect the south of Scandinavia, Denmark as well as northern Germany and Poland. Peak gusts over 110km/h are to be expected.
For Thursday, the storm system is expected to affect much of central Europe all the way south to Slovenia; most of central Europe, including the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Czech Republic and parts of Poland should expect over 125km/h winds as the storm field moves through.
This storm will move towards the east on Friday, bringing gusts near 100km/h to the Balkans especially in the first half of the day, but at the same time a new storm will start forming in the North Sea. By the evening, around 115km/h winds may affect the north of the UK and the North Sea Islands.

Below are today’s ESC Overview map, warnings and watches.

2016-11-25-esc

2016-11-25-warn

Red: Storm Warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 24h)

2016.11.16 02:00 UTC – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 02:00am on the 16th of November, 2016.

Severe storm MIRJA is located just to the northwest of Iceland with a central pressure of 966hPa at the 18UTC analysis. Peak gusts in the system currently exceed 170km/h, making it fit for the classification as “severe storm”. The system is forecast to gradually move to the east, and within the next 24 hours will (in some regions continue to) affect Iceland, Ireland, the UK and the North Sea Islands. At the beginning of the forecast period, in the coming few hours, the possibility of severe storm gusts especially at the southwestern coast of Iceland is given. A storm warning has been issued for all of the above regions, in southwestern Iceland it overlays a severe storm watch.
Peak gusts registered in relation to storm MIRJA in the past 24h:
154km/h in Cairngorn Mountains, UK
133km/h in Juvvasshoe, Norway

Storm LAURA is located at the northwestern coast of Norway. It currently has a central pressure of 965hPa, and peak gusts exceeding 105km/h. Within the next 24 hours, it will continue to move towards the east and quickly lose intensity; however especially at the beginning of the forecast period, storm gusts are to be expected in northern Norway, northern Sweden and northern Finland. Storm warnings have been issued for the respective regions.

A storm watch has been issued for the northern coast of France, for Belgium, the Netherlands and the North Sea Coast of Germany regarding severe storm MIRJA, the storm field of which is expected to shift further to the south between 24 and 48 hours from now. Due to the time frame and the fact that there are still uncertainties regarding the intensity and distribution of the storm field, a storm watch has been issued for the regions stated above.

Below are today’s ESC Overview, as well as the warnings and watches.

2016-11-15

2016-11-15warn

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Orange: Severe storm watch (>120km/h possible within 48h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 48h)

2016.11.13 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

Here is today’s ESC European windstorm overview, issued November 13th 2016 at 20:00 UTC.

There is currently one storm system in the region.

A nameless severe storm is located near Iceland, with a central pressure of currently 964hPa and peak gusts exceeding 120km/h. The storm center is forecast to move towards the northeast, and the wind field will intensify before making landfall in Scandinavia. Currently, this severe storm is affecting Iceland, Ireland, the UK and the North Sea Islands (storm warnings have been issued for these regions), however it is forecast to strike the west coast of Norway and the north of the Scandinavian peninsula with hurricane-forced storm gusts within the next 24 hours, hence a severe storm warning has been issued for those regions.

Below are the ESC Overview as well as warnings and watches:

2016-11-13-warn

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Dark red: Severe storm warning (>120km/h likely within 24h)

2016-11-13