2016.12.26 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 0700UTC on the 26.12.2016

There are currently 2 storm systems in the region.

Severe storm BARBARA will be moving through northern and central Europe today, bringing with it wind gusts in part over 200km/h. BARBARA is currently located in the North Sea with a central pressure of 951hPa. The storm field is largely located to the south of the storm’s center. Storm BARBARA is expected to move across Scandinavia and then reach parts of central Europe in the coming night. Severe storm warnings were issued for the North Sea Islands, where the storm is already raging at hurricane-force, and also for the north of the UK, where the currently highest wind gusts are being registered. Later, the coast of Norway and afterwards southern Norway, Sweden, the entirety of Denmark and some Baltic islands will be battered by hurricane-forced winds. In the coming night, the wind field will move further inland on mainland Europe (mainly Germany and Poland), and will also reach major cities such as Berlin. Storm warnings were issued. As the storm loses structure tomorrow, there may be storm gusts in other parts of Scandinavia, in the Baltic and in central eastern Europe as well; storm watches were issued.
Peak gusts of storm Barbara:
238km/h – Cairngorm Mountains, UK
183km/h – Aonach Mor, UK
176km/h – Cairnwell, UK
172km/h – Soervaag, DK
172km/h – Thorshavn, DK

A new severe storm has formed off the coast of Canada, with peak gusts exceeding 135km/h and a central pressure of 980hPa. It is expected to cross the Atlantic today and into tomorrow, but will miss mainland Europe and instead dissipate as it moves to the northeast of Iceland.

Below are the  ESC Overview as well as warnings and watches maps.

2016.12.25 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Issued at 0630UTC on the 25.12.2016

There is currently 1 storm system in the region.

Storm BARBARA, currently just to southwest of Iceland with a central pressure of 961hPa is moving towards Europe. It is currently the only storm system watched by ESC in Europe. BARBA is expected to bring hurricane-forced gusts to parts of Europe. A severe storm warning was issued for the northern parts of Ireland and the UK, where gusts above 125km/h are to be expected in the passage of the storm’s fronts today. The highest wind speeds, in part above 180km/h, are to be expected on exposed mountaintops in Scotland. A severe storm warning was also issued for the islands of the North Sea, where gusts may exceed 150km/h as the storm field moves through towards Scandinavia. Storm gusts are also to be expected in the rest of Ireland and the UK, Iceland, mainland Denmark, the North Sea coast of the Netherlands and Germany within 24 hours. BARBARA is expected to cross Scandinavia tomorrow, making a severe storm watch necessary for all of southern Norway and Sweden and some of the Baltic islands, and a regular storm watch for the remaining Baltic islands as well as the eastern and southern Baltic coasts and some of mainland Germany. See the warnings and watches map below for details.
BARBARA’s current peak gusts of today:
181km/h – Cairngorn Mountains, UK
165km/h – Cairnwell, UK
154km/h – Aonach Mor, UK

Below are the ESC Overview and warnings / watches maps:

2016.12.22 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 1300UTC on the 22.12.2016

There are currently two storm systems in the region.

A nameless storm is located near Iceland,  currently causing windy weather over the UK and in the mountains of Norway. It is, however, expected to weaken so much that it will not be considered a “storm” by ESC within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Storm ANTJE is located off the coast of Canada and will move across the northern Atlantic in the coming 24 hours, reaching Ireland and the NW of the UK towards the end of the 24-hour forecast period. Therefore, storm warnings have been issued for those regions. A severe storm watch has been issued for the North Sea Islands and a regular storm warning was issued for Iceland. The storm will then continue to move further towards Europe, making a storm warning necessary for the coast of Norway as well as parts of central Europe – the Netherlands, northwestern Germany, and Denmark. Warnings were also issued for the islands in the Baltic and some coastal areas in the Baltic States and in Finland.

Below are the ESC Overview, as well as the warnings and watches maps.

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Orange: Severe storm watch (>120km/h possible within 48h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 24h)

2016.12.21 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 0930UTC on the 21.12.2016.

There is currently 1 storm system in the region.

Storm ZARINA is located in the far north of the North Sea, with a central pressure of currently only 942hPa. A peak gust of 166km/h has been registered in Norway. ZARINA is currently battering the west coast of Norway and some North Sea Islands with hurricane-forced winds – ESC has therefore issued a severe storm warning for those regions. The storm is also impacting the rest of the North Sea, Iceland as well as the northern parts of the UK and Ireland; regular storm warnings were issued for these regions. As ZARINA continues to move towards the northeast, wind speeds will pick up in the Baltic within the next 24 hours as well, making a storm warning necessary for some land masses adjacent to the ocean. It is possible that storm gusts occur at the southern coast of Norway and in Denmark towards the end of the 24-hour forecast period, hence a storm watch has been issued for these regions.

Below are the ESC Overview as well as the warnings and watches maps.

Dark red: Severe storm warning (>120km/h likely within 24h)

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 48h)

2016.12.20 – Will there be a Christmas Storm?

Forecast models suggest that a series of powerful storms will sweep through northern and central Europe around Christmas – here, we will take a closer look at what is expected as of now.

Below is the ground forecast for midnight (UTC) of the 23rd of December. A powerful, well-defined low-pressure system will have formed over the northern Atlantic to the west of the British isles, embedded in a lively westerly flow. Most of the storms in the previous days were located further north, around Iceland, although their storm fields sometimes extended far enough to the south to affect parts of the UK. This new storm, however, will be on a direct path to Ireland and the UK. At this point, gusts in the storm may exceed 165km/h over the open ocean.

Ground forecast of the UK Met Office for 00UTC on the 23rd of December.

The storm will continue to intensify, and by 12UTC its center is predicted to be to the north of Ireland, with the low having deepened to a central pressure of 959hPa. Hurricane-forced storm gusts are to be expected in both the UK and Ireland – in the forecast map below, at 12UTC, the front system with the most intense winds has already passed Ireland and is located over the UK. The highest wind speeds are to be expected in the Scottish highlands and at the coasts of the northern UK.

GFS Forecast of the peak gusts at 12UTC on the 23rd of December.

In the afternoon and evening hours, the center of the low will move towards the northeast, however at the same time the area that the storm field covers will increase. At 18UTC, the most severe parts of the storm field will be located to the north of the British Isles (although it is possible that very intense hurricane-forced gusts over 140km/h affect the far north of the UK), and over the North Sea, where the system of fronts will be located. Large waves and high winds are to be expected at the coasts of Norway as well. In the evening, the fronts will be located off the North Sea coasts of the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium – along the coasts, gusts of around 100km/h are currently forecast, but except for Denmark, the storm field is not expected to move inland.

The storm will continue to rage especially in the northern half of the UK for the hours afterwards, and it will also be stormy in the Baltic and at some of its coasts. By the evening of the 24th, the storm will have weakened with its highest wind speeds in the North Sea and along the coast of Norway.

But at the same time, a new storm will form over the northern Atlantic to the west of the British Isles. It is expected to reach Ireland by 00UTC on the 25th, while still intensifying and moving towards the east. Gusts of up to 120km/h are to be expected in Ireland in that night, the UK might experience even higher wind speeds, especially in Scotland. The storm is not predicted to move to the northeast like the previous ones, but rather to keep heading east and cross over southern Scandinavia in the evening of the 25th, bringing extreme wind speeds of over 150km/h to the North Sea close to the shores of mainland Europe (the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark), and also gusts exceeding 120km/h to the Baltic. Unlike the previous storm, this time the storm field is expected to move far inland – Berlin, for example, is currently predicted to be hit by gusts around 110km/h.

GFS Peak gusts forecast for 00UTC on the 26th of December, 2016

The storm is then expected to quickly move away to the east, with a lively, at times stormy wind over most of eastern and eastern central Europe behind it.

That is a brief overview of what is forecast to happen as of now – keep in mind that it is still quite a while away and hence the forecasts may change quite significantly.

2016.12.20 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Issued at 0750UTC on the 20.12.2016

There are currently two storm systems in the region.

Severe storm XENIA is located near Iceland with a central pressure of 945hPa and peak gusts exceeding 145km/h. Its storm field is currently affecting Iceland and will move across the UK, Ireland, the North Sea Islands and to the coast of Norway in the coming hours. Hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected in Iceland, the northern UK, the North Sea Islands and Norway’s coast – severe storm warnings have been issued for those regions. In Ireland and parts of the central UK, storm gusts are to be expected and hence a storm warning was issued. The storm may affect the Baltic between 24 and 48 hours from now, however due to uncertainties in the forecast and the time span in which this may happen, only a storm watch has been issued for the islands in the Baltic.

Another storm is currently located in the western Mediterranean, with a central pressure of 1002hPa and peak gusts of over 115km/h. The main threat from this system, however, is excessive precipitation. ESC has issued a storm warning for the Baleares, far southern France, Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily. The storm is forecast to weaken in the coming 24 hours, and no storm watches are necessary.

Dark red: Severe storm warning (>120km/h within 24h likely)

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h within 24h likely)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h within 48h likely)

2016.12.14 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued 2016.12.14 at 1630UTC.

There are currently two storm systems in the regions.

Severe storm XENIA is located to the southeast of Iceland with a central pressure of 973hPa and peak gusts exceeding 130km/h. It is currently affecting Iceland, the North Sea Islands and possibly the coast of Norway. The storm is expected to weaken and ultimately dissipate as it moves in a northerly direction and away from land masses. Due to uncertainties in the size of XENIA’s storm field, a storm watch has been issued for the coast of Norway.

A nameless severe storm is located over the central northern Atlantic, with a central pressure of only 959hPa and peak gusts exceeding the impressive value of 160km/h. It is forecast to move further to the northeast but weaken on the way. Iceland should nonetheless brace for gusts above 110km/h from this storm within the 24-48hours. Due to the possibility of storm gusts in northwestern Ireland and the northwestern UK, a storm watch has been issued for those regions as well.

Below are the ESC Overview- as well as the Warnings and Watches Maps.

2016.12.12 – ESC European Windstorm Overview

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued 12.12.2016 at 1630UTC.

There are currently two storm systems in the region.

Storm WALTRAUD is located at the northeastern tip of Iceland, currently with a central pressure of 980hPa and peak gusts exceeding 115km/h. The storm is currently affecting Iceland, hence a storm warning has been issued for that island. No other land masses are expected to be in WALTRAUD’s storm field within the forecast period.

A nameless severe storm is located over the northern Atlantic, moving to the north. It currently has a central pressure of 960hPa and peak gusts exceeding 140km/h. Its storm field is expected to extend over Iceland, Ireland, the UK and the North Sea islands within the 48-hour forecast period needed for a watch to be issued.

Below are the ESC European Storm Overview and Warnings / Watches maps:

 

2016.12.07 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Issued at 1500UTC on the 07th of December, 2016.

There is currently 1 storm system in the region.

Storm UTE is located to the north of the British Isles with a central pressure of 994hPa and gusts exceeding 105km/h in its storm field. It is currently affecting both the UK and Ireland, hence a storm warning has been issued for these two countries. A storm warning has also been issued for the North Sea islands, where the storm field is expected to move within the next 24 hours. UTE is then predicted to move further to the east, affecting the coasts of southern Scandinavia and the Baltic coasts as soon as within 36 hours; due to uncertainties in timing and intensity of the storm field, a storm watch has been issued. The storm field is then expected to stretch southeast through eastern Europe towards the end of the 48-hour forecast period; a storm watch has been issued for those regions as well. Peak gusts of storm UTE today:
166km/h – Cairngorn Mountains, UK
135km/h – Aonach Mor, UK
128km/h – Bealach Na Ba No 2, UK

Below are the ESC Overview, as well as the Warnings and Watches map:

 

2016.11.25 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European windstorm overview, issued at 17:00UTC on November 25th, 2016.

There are currently two systems in the region.

Storm RENATE is currently located to the northeast of Iceland, with a central pressure of 981hPa at the last, 12UTC, analysis. Peak gusts currently exceed 110km/h, with the highest wind speeds currently over the North Sea as well as north of Iceland and along the coast of Greenland. The storm is already affecting Norway, but is forecast to move towards the east over the next 24 hours, and most of Scandinavia will be affected by RENATE’s storm field within this time, hence storm warnings have been issued for the North Sea Islands, Norway, Sweden, Finland and the coasts of some Baltic nations (see the warnings map below for details). Here are the peak gusts measured in relation to RENATE today:
148km/h – Juvvasshoe, Norway
117km/h – Ona Li, Norway
108km/h – Krakenes, Norway

A second, nameless storm is currently located over the northern Atlantic. Peak gusts in this system exceed 105km/h at this time, and the central pressure is 990hPa. The storm is expected to move towards the north and strengthen, and in a time period between 24 and 48 hours from now is affected to affect Iceland with its storm field, hence a storm warning has been issued for the island. Peak gusts may exceed 100km/h in Iceland when the storm strikes.

 

This is the ESC European windstorm outlook, issued at 17:00UTC on November 25th, 2016.

(For the time period up to T+48h please refer to the ESC European windstorm overview).

The second half of Sunday will be fairly calm, except for a storm field over the Baltic with peak gusts exceeding 95km/h and possibly windy conditions especially on the northwestern coast of Iceland.
No significant storm systems are expected for Monday as of now, although along the northern edge of a high-pressure area located over the North Sea there will be an area of increased wind speeds, possibly with some gusts over 80km/h affecting some North Sea Islands.
On Tuesday, a low pressure system is expected to form near Iceland, which is forecast to quickly intensify and start moving to the east. By 18UTC, ESC expects the system to pack peak gusts of over 125km/h and may affect the coast of Norway. At the same time, storm gusts are expected over the northern Atlantic between the low pressure near Iceland and the higher pressure further south, with gusts exceeding 120km/h.
On Wednesday, this storm field is expected to move across the UK and into the North Sea. The north of the UK should be ready for gusts over 105km/h, the coast of Norway may experience gusts over 110km/h a few hours later. The second storm, moving east from Iceland, will merge with an area of lower pressure already located over Scandinavia and so contribute to the large storm field over the UK and into the North Sea. In the evening, the storm field is forecast to move on to affect the south of Scandinavia, Denmark as well as northern Germany and Poland. Peak gusts over 110km/h are to be expected.
For Thursday, the storm system is expected to affect much of central Europe all the way south to Slovenia; most of central Europe, including the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Czech Republic and parts of Poland should expect over 125km/h winds as the storm field moves through.
This storm will move towards the east on Friday, bringing gusts near 100km/h to the Balkans especially in the first half of the day, but at the same time a new storm will start forming in the North Sea. By the evening, around 115km/h winds may affect the north of the UK and the North Sea Islands.

Below are today’s ESC Overview map, warnings and watches.

2016-11-25-esc

2016-11-25-warn

Red: Storm Warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 24h)