2018.09.17 – Former Hurricane to hit UK, Ireland: ESC European Windstorm Update

Forecaster: LH

The former Hurricane “HELENE”, currently located to the southwest of Ireland with a central pressure of 987 hPa and peak wind gusts of around 120km/h, is expected to move across the British Isles today.

Compared to earlier forecasts, this latest forecast run suggests that the storm will be considerably weaker and will likely pose minimal risks to the areas it crosses. Ireland will be reached first, especially the western coast; peak storm gusts may reach 90 or 100km/h. The storm field is later expected to cross the southern UK, where storm gusts should not exceed 70km/h in most places. Highest wind speeds will be observed at exposed locations and at the coast.
Later, the wind field of former hurricane HELENE may also stripe the coast of the NetherlandsDenmark, and Norway; however, here, too, peak gusts should not exceed about 85km/h.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and the Storm Warnings and Watches:

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.15 – European Windstorm Update: Strong Storm to strike Scotland and Ireland

Forecaster: LH

There are two storm systems currently in the vicinity of Europe.

A weak storm has formed to the southwest of Iceland, currently holding wind speeds of just 70km/h and a central pressure of 998hPa. The storm is expected to slightly intensify as it approaches ICELAND as the day progresses. In about 12 hours, the first storm gusts may reach the island, and wind speeds will stay elevated, especially at exposed locations, for hours to come.

The still unnamed storm located to the west of the British Isles has intensified over night, now holding wind speeds of around 110km/h and with its central pressure having dropped to 1008 hPa. The storm is expected to further intensify as it makes its way towards IRELAND and the UK.
Wind speeds will start picking up at the western coast of Ireland this evening. Especially the western and northern coasts of Ireland will be affected; here, gusts up to or exceeding 110km/h are possible. Wind conditions will stay calmer further inland, but there may still be storm gusts. Storm warnings and watches have been issued accordingly (see below).
The wind field of the storm will reach Scotland in the coming night; especially in the Scottish Highlands, the Isles and the coasts, partially hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected. Wind speeds may exceed 120km/h. As it is still unclear how far south the wind field will stretch, a storm watch has been issued for large parts of the UK.
Between 36 and 48 hours from now, the storm field is expected to reach the coast of Norway, where gusts of around 100km/h are to be expected.
Due to uncertainties in prediction, no forecasts are given for more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and Storm Warnings & Watches.

 

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.14 – Storm headed for Ireland & Scotland; Watches Issued

Forecaster: LH

There is currently one storm system in the proximity of Europe. The unnamed storm which had a central pressure of 1012 hPa at 18:00 UTC and currently packs estimated peak gusts of around 100km/h is expected to further intensify as it moves eastwards in the next 36 hours.

Ireland will be the first to be affected by the storm, with gusts of up to 110km/h possible along much of the coastline, though weaker winds are to be expected inland. The storm will continue to move northeastwards, affecting Scotland and bringing hurricane-forced gusts especially to the highlands, coasts and islands; gusts of up to 130km/h are very well possible, locally wind speeds may even exceed 130km/h.

The storm is expected to continue moving northeastwards and may later affect Norway, however due to uncertainties in predictions, ESC watches are not issued more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC overview, as well as ESC European Windstorm Warnings & Watches.

 

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.07.28 – Convective Forecast (Thunderstorm Forecast) for Germany & central Europe

High temperatures combined with relatively high humidity (thanks to increased evaporation) will provide a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorms in much of central Europe today. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to move over the BeNeLux and into Germany currently (08.40 CEST), and will continue to move eastwards across Germany as the day progresses. They are expected to further intensify, with the potential for some storms to bring severe weather conditions. The possibility of storms clustering together to form long-lived “mesoscale convective systems” is also given. The main risks stemming from today’s thunderstorms are Large Hail with diameters potentially exceeding 2cm, as well as storm gusts which may exceed 120km/h in some thunderstorms, especially in northern Germany, and exceed 90km/h in many cases. Heavy rainfall is also not to be ruled out, with rain rates of up to 30l/sq. m in an hour certainly a realistic possibility. The potential for widespread flash-flooding is limited, however, due to the speed at which the thunderstorms are expected to move and the nature of the the individual storm cells.
In Switzerland and southwestern Germany, conditions look favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms, bringing a further elevated potential for severe weather.

2018.05.15 – Convective Forecast (Thunderstorm Forecast) for Germany and Central Europe (English Version)

Issued 2018.05.15 at 06:00 CEST

Wide parts of Germany and Central Europe present the right conditions for the formation of thunderstorms today. This is due to the unstable layering of the atmosphere which, in combination with the energy that the sun provides, will lead to the formation of local heat-induced thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Most of these thunderstorms will be rather narrowly confined, meaning that if one town is hit by a thunderstorm, the neighboring town may stay entirely dry.

The general direction the thunderstorms will move across Germany is from Northeast to Southwest.

The main risk stemming from today’s thunderstorms is strong rain of between 20 and 40 liters per square meter in short time (under an hour). Flash flooding can take place, which can result in traffic delays and property damage. Further, in and around thunderstorms, storm gusts of up to 70km/h are possible. Also small hail, which will in the most cases not exceed a diameter of 2cm, is not to be ruled out. Hail with more than 2 or 3cm in diameter, tornadoes, as well as strong, structured thunderstorms are unlikely under today’s conditions.

If possible, keep yourself informed about the current weather situation.

Below, you will find the “Convective Forecast” for Central Europe.

2018.05.15 – Gewitter-Vorhersage für Deutschland, Österreich und Mitteleuropa (Deutsche Ausgabe)

Ausgegeben 2018.05.15 um 06:00 MESZ

Über weiten Teilen Deutschlands und in weiten Teilen Mitteleuropas besteht heute das Potential für Gewitterbildung. Das liegt an der instabilen Schichtung der Atmosphäre, welche in Verbindung mit der zunehmend vorhandenen Energie der Sonne im Laufe des Nachmittags lokale Wärmegewitter entstehen lassen wird.

Die meisten dieser Gewitter werden lokal eng begrenzt bleiben, was bedeutet, dass während ein Ort ein Gewitter abbekommt, der Nachbarort davon möglicherweise nichts mitbekommt.

Die generelle Zugrichtung der Gewitter ist über Deutschland von Norosten nach Südwesten.

Die Hauptgefahr bei den heutigen Gewittern stellt Starkregen mit mengen von 20 bis 40 Litern pro Quadratmeter in kurzer Zeit her. Damit können Überflutungen inklusive Verkehrsbehinderungen und Sachbeschädigungen vorkommen. Weiters können in und nahe den Gewittern Sturmböen von bis zu 70km/h auftreten. Auch kleinkörniger Hagel, der meist unter 2cm im Durchmesser betragen wird, ist nicht auszuschließen. Hagel mit mehr als 2 oder 3cm Durchmesser, Tornados sowie kräftige, strukturierte Gewitter sind unter den heutigen Bedingungen äußerst unwahrscheinlich.

Halten Sie sich nach Möglichkeit über die aktuelle Wetterlage am Laufenden.

Unten finden Sie die heutige “Convective Forecast” – Schwergewittervorhersage für Mitteleuropa.

2018.04.04 – Convective Forecast (Thunderstorm Forecast) for Germany, Central Europe (English Version)

Issued 2018.04.04 at 08:40 CET

As soon as spring has fully arrived in central Europe, the thunderstorm season is already setting off.

A cold front is moving eastwards across Germany today, ahead of which partly strong showers and thunderstorms will form. Currently (08:40 local time) there are already a number of strong showers to be found in the southwest of Germany. The showers and thunderstorms will move towards the northeast, and will have reached Brandenburg and Berlin by the evening. According to the latest predictions, the highest potential for strong and severe thunderstorms will be found in the afternoon and evening in Saxony, the southern half of Brandenburg and parts of Saxony-Anhalt.

Due to the current and prognosticated conditions in the atmosphere, the main risk stemming from these storms will be storm gusts and severe storm gusts between 70 and 110km/h (these can also occur along the cold front outside of thunderstorms!)
Further, in showers and thunderstorms high rates of precipitation of around 15 liters per square meter in an hour, and locally hail up to 3cm in diameter are to be expected.

If possible, keep up to date with the current weather situation.

Below, you will find the Convective Forecast / Thunderstorm Forecast for Central Europe:

2018.04.04 – Gewitter-Vorhersage für Deutschland, Mitteleuropa (Deutsche Version)

Ausgegeben 2018.04.04 um 08:40 MEZ

Kaum ist der Frühling so richtig in Mitteleuropa angekommen, da geht die Gewittersaison auch schon los.

Heute erreicht Deutschland von westen her eine Kaltfront, in deren Vorfeld sich teils kräftige Schauer und Gewitter entwickeln werden. Schon derzeit (08:40 Ortszeit) finden sich im Südwesten Deutschlands einige starke Regenschauer. Die Schauer und Gewitter werden sich im Tagesverlauf von Südwesten nach Nordosten verlagern, und bis zum Abend Brandenburg und auch Berlin erreicht haben.
Nach derzeitigem Stand der Vorhersagen besteht das größte Potential für kräftige Gewitter und Unwetter am Nachmittag und Abend in Sachsen, der Südhälfte Brandenburgs und teilen Sachsen-Anhalts.

Aufgrund der derzeitigen und prognostizierten Bedingungen in der Atmosphäre besteht die Hauptgefahr bei den heutigen Gewittern in Sturmböen und schweren Sturmböen zwischen 70 und 110km/h (diese können auch außerhalb von Gewittern entlang der Kaltfront auftreten!)
Außerdem muss in Schauern und Gewittern mit hohen Niederschlagsmengen von bis zu 15 Litern pro Quadratmeter in nur einer Stunde, sowie vereinzelt auch mit Hagel bis maximal 3cm in Durchmesser gerechnet werden.

Halten Sie sich nach Möglichkeit über die aktuelle Wetterlage am Laufenden.

Unten finden Sie die heutige “Convective Forecast” – Schwergewittervorhersage für Mitteleuropa.

2018.02.21 – European Windstorm Update: Iceland to be Battered by a Severe Storm

The situation in Europe overall is rather calm currently, with one exception: Iceland should brace for the arrival of a very powerful storm within the next few hours. The storm system, currently packing wind speeds in excess of 130km/h and a central pressure of 987hPa, is expected to bring severe storm gusts to much of the island, and peak winds may exceed well beyond 200km/h in exposed locations. Warnings have been issued accordingly, see below.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview, as well as the storm warnings and watches:

 

2018.02.12 – ESC European Windstorm Update: Storm QUINN heading for the UK, Ireland, Iceland

There are currently two storms around Europe.

Storm PHILINE,  currently located over Denmark, is expected to more or less dissipate within the next 24 hours, and is currently only bringing storm gusts to a fairly small area consisting of Denmark and the far north of Germany.

However, from the northern Atlantic, a new storm is approaching: severe storm QUINN, currently located to the northwest of Ireland, is packing gusts exceeding 120km/h and has a central pressure of 988hPa. It is expected to strike Ireland and, a few hours later, the UK in the coming night, bringing wide-spread storm gusts and some severe storm gusts, especially in exposed locations. The storm will move northeast or north-northeast, and will also bring severe storm gusts to parts of Iceland by tomorrow morning. The French coast may be impacted between tomorrow morning and the early afternoon, as well. Storm warnings and watches have been issued accordingly. See below.

Below: ESC European Windstorm Overview, Warnings and Watches.