2018.09.21 – Storm in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands: ESC European Windstorm Update

Storm ELENA, which has crossed the UK in the night from Thursday to Friday and its currently making its way into the North Sea, will bring a good deal of wind to northern central Europe today.

The storm currently has a central pressure of 986 hPa and packs wind speeds of over 140km/h, however is expected to further intensify, eventually reaching peak gusts of up to 190km/h in its center.

Denmark will likely be the hardest hit in terms of wind speeds; especially in exposed locations and at the northwestern coast, peak gusts may reach full hurricane-force, possibly exceeding 160km/h.
The Netherlands should expect stormy conditions to commence within the next few hours, bringing wind speeds of 70-100km/h to much of the country and peaks of up to around 120km/h at the coasts.
In Germany, the North Sea coast and its islands should brace themselves for storm gusts in the range of 100 to 120km/h. Further inland, a strong cold front will move from west to east over the north of Germany, bringing not only a drop in temperatures by up to 20°C in very short time, but also potentially hazardous storm gusts which may locally exceed 100km/h.
This same cold front will move into Poland, affected especially the west and northwest of the country before it lessens in intensity overnight.
In Sweden and Norway, storm gusts are mainly expected at the southern coasts and in exposed locations such as mountain peaks, however there are uncertainties in the forecast and how far north the wind field will reach.

Below are the Windstorm overview and the windstorm warnings and watches for Europe.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2019.09.19 – Severe storm approaching Ireland, UK and Norway: European Windstorm Update

Storm DORCAS is currently impacting especially the northern parts of the UK, bringing storm gusts with peaks of up to 159km/h (registered at Cairnwell, UK). However, this storm is expected to weaken as it moves away from the British Isles today, only bringing storm gusts to Iceland later on.

A new storm is on the way though; the currently still unnamed storm with a central pressure of 983 hPa is currently located to the southwest of the British Isles, already packing wind speeds over 115km/h and expected to further increase. Wind speeds in Ireland are expected to soon pick up, and hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected even far inland and in non-exposed locations. However, the coasts will by far experience the worst conditions, with seriously impressive wind speeds possibly exceeding 180km/h being predicted. By the afternoon, the storm will have moved on to the UK, where especially Scotland will receive widespread hurricane-forced winds; gusts are expected to reach up to and maybe even exceed 170km/h here as well. The remaining, more southern parts of the UK will also experience stormy conditions, however to a lesser extent than in Scotland. Through the night, the storm will move on, battering the coast of Norway.

A storm watch has been issued as well for the coasts of northwestern Europe due to a potential storm on Friday.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Warnings and Watches.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.17 – Former Hurricane to hit UK, Ireland: ESC European Windstorm Update

Forecaster: LH

The former Hurricane “HELENE”, currently located to the southwest of Ireland with a central pressure of 987 hPa and peak wind gusts of around 120km/h, is expected to move across the British Isles today.

Compared to earlier forecasts, this latest forecast run suggests that the storm will be considerably weaker and will likely pose minimal risks to the areas it crosses. Ireland will be reached first, especially the western coast; peak storm gusts may reach 90 or 100km/h. The storm field is later expected to cross the southern UK, where storm gusts should not exceed 70km/h in most places. Highest wind speeds will be observed at exposed locations and at the coast.
Later, the wind field of former hurricane HELENE may also stripe the coast of the NetherlandsDenmark, and Norway; however, here, too, peak gusts should not exceed about 85km/h.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and the Storm Warnings and Watches:

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.15 – European Windstorm Update: Strong Storm to strike Scotland and Ireland

Forecaster: LH

There are two storm systems currently in the vicinity of Europe.

A weak storm has formed to the southwest of Iceland, currently holding wind speeds of just 70km/h and a central pressure of 998hPa. The storm is expected to slightly intensify as it approaches ICELAND as the day progresses. In about 12 hours, the first storm gusts may reach the island, and wind speeds will stay elevated, especially at exposed locations, for hours to come.

The still unnamed storm located to the west of the British Isles has intensified over night, now holding wind speeds of around 110km/h and with its central pressure having dropped to 1008 hPa. The storm is expected to further intensify as it makes its way towards IRELAND and the UK.
Wind speeds will start picking up at the western coast of Ireland this evening. Especially the western and northern coasts of Ireland will be affected; here, gusts up to or exceeding 110km/h are possible. Wind conditions will stay calmer further inland, but there may still be storm gusts. Storm warnings and watches have been issued accordingly (see below).
The wind field of the storm will reach Scotland in the coming night; especially in the Scottish Highlands, the Isles and the coasts, partially hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected. Wind speeds may exceed 120km/h. As it is still unclear how far south the wind field will stretch, a storm watch has been issued for large parts of the UK.
Between 36 and 48 hours from now, the storm field is expected to reach the coast of Norway, where gusts of around 100km/h are to be expected.
Due to uncertainties in prediction, no forecasts are given for more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and Storm Warnings & Watches.

 

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.14 – Storm headed for Ireland & Scotland; Watches Issued

Forecaster: LH

There is currently one storm system in the proximity of Europe. The unnamed storm which had a central pressure of 1012 hPa at 18:00 UTC and currently packs estimated peak gusts of around 100km/h is expected to further intensify as it moves eastwards in the next 36 hours.

Ireland will be the first to be affected by the storm, with gusts of up to 110km/h possible along much of the coastline, though weaker winds are to be expected inland. The storm will continue to move northeastwards, affecting Scotland and bringing hurricane-forced gusts especially to the highlands, coasts and islands; gusts of up to 130km/h are very well possible, locally wind speeds may even exceed 130km/h.

The storm is expected to continue moving northeastwards and may later affect Norway, however due to uncertainties in predictions, ESC watches are not issued more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC overview, as well as ESC European Windstorm Warnings & Watches.

 

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.07.28 – Convective Forecast (Thunderstorm Forecast) for Germany & central Europe

High temperatures combined with relatively high humidity (thanks to increased evaporation) will provide a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorms in much of central Europe today. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to move over the BeNeLux and into Germany currently (08.40 CEST), and will continue to move eastwards across Germany as the day progresses. They are expected to further intensify, with the potential for some storms to bring severe weather conditions. The possibility of storms clustering together to form long-lived “mesoscale convective systems” is also given. The main risks stemming from today’s thunderstorms are Large Hail with diameters potentially exceeding 2cm, as well as storm gusts which may exceed 120km/h in some thunderstorms, especially in northern Germany, and exceed 90km/h in many cases. Heavy rainfall is also not to be ruled out, with rain rates of up to 30l/sq. m in an hour certainly a realistic possibility. The potential for widespread flash-flooding is limited, however, due to the speed at which the thunderstorms are expected to move and the nature of the the individual storm cells.
In Switzerland and southwestern Germany, conditions look favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms, bringing a further elevated potential for severe weather.

2018.05.15 – Convective Forecast (Thunderstorm Forecast) for Germany and Central Europe (English Version)

Issued 2018.05.15 at 06:00 CEST

Wide parts of Germany and Central Europe present the right conditions for the formation of thunderstorms today. This is due to the unstable layering of the atmosphere which, in combination with the energy that the sun provides, will lead to the formation of local heat-induced thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Most of these thunderstorms will be rather narrowly confined, meaning that if one town is hit by a thunderstorm, the neighboring town may stay entirely dry.

The general direction the thunderstorms will move across Germany is from Northeast to Southwest.

The main risk stemming from today’s thunderstorms is strong rain of between 20 and 40 liters per square meter in short time (under an hour). Flash flooding can take place, which can result in traffic delays and property damage. Further, in and around thunderstorms, storm gusts of up to 70km/h are possible. Also small hail, which will in the most cases not exceed a diameter of 2cm, is not to be ruled out. Hail with more than 2 or 3cm in diameter, tornadoes, as well as strong, structured thunderstorms are unlikely under today’s conditions.

If possible, keep yourself informed about the current weather situation.

Below, you will find the “Convective Forecast” for Central Europe.

2018.05.15 – Gewitter-Vorhersage für Deutschland, Österreich und Mitteleuropa (Deutsche Ausgabe)

Ausgegeben 2018.05.15 um 06:00 MESZ

Über weiten Teilen Deutschlands und in weiten Teilen Mitteleuropas besteht heute das Potential für Gewitterbildung. Das liegt an der instabilen Schichtung der Atmosphäre, welche in Verbindung mit der zunehmend vorhandenen Energie der Sonne im Laufe des Nachmittags lokale Wärmegewitter entstehen lassen wird.

Die meisten dieser Gewitter werden lokal eng begrenzt bleiben, was bedeutet, dass während ein Ort ein Gewitter abbekommt, der Nachbarort davon möglicherweise nichts mitbekommt.

Die generelle Zugrichtung der Gewitter ist über Deutschland von Norosten nach Südwesten.

Die Hauptgefahr bei den heutigen Gewittern stellt Starkregen mit mengen von 20 bis 40 Litern pro Quadratmeter in kurzer Zeit her. Damit können Überflutungen inklusive Verkehrsbehinderungen und Sachbeschädigungen vorkommen. Weiters können in und nahe den Gewittern Sturmböen von bis zu 70km/h auftreten. Auch kleinkörniger Hagel, der meist unter 2cm im Durchmesser betragen wird, ist nicht auszuschließen. Hagel mit mehr als 2 oder 3cm Durchmesser, Tornados sowie kräftige, strukturierte Gewitter sind unter den heutigen Bedingungen äußerst unwahrscheinlich.

Halten Sie sich nach Möglichkeit über die aktuelle Wetterlage am Laufenden.

Unten finden Sie die heutige “Convective Forecast” – Schwergewittervorhersage für Mitteleuropa.

2018.04.04 – Convective Forecast (Thunderstorm Forecast) for Germany, Central Europe (English Version)

Issued 2018.04.04 at 08:40 CET

As soon as spring has fully arrived in central Europe, the thunderstorm season is already setting off.

A cold front is moving eastwards across Germany today, ahead of which partly strong showers and thunderstorms will form. Currently (08:40 local time) there are already a number of strong showers to be found in the southwest of Germany. The showers and thunderstorms will move towards the northeast, and will have reached Brandenburg and Berlin by the evening. According to the latest predictions, the highest potential for strong and severe thunderstorms will be found in the afternoon and evening in Saxony, the southern half of Brandenburg and parts of Saxony-Anhalt.

Due to the current and prognosticated conditions in the atmosphere, the main risk stemming from these storms will be storm gusts and severe storm gusts between 70 and 110km/h (these can also occur along the cold front outside of thunderstorms!)
Further, in showers and thunderstorms high rates of precipitation of around 15 liters per square meter in an hour, and locally hail up to 3cm in diameter are to be expected.

If possible, keep up to date with the current weather situation.

Below, you will find the Convective Forecast / Thunderstorm Forecast for Central Europe:

2018.04.04 – Gewitter-Vorhersage für Deutschland, Mitteleuropa (Deutsche Version)

Ausgegeben 2018.04.04 um 08:40 MEZ

Kaum ist der Frühling so richtig in Mitteleuropa angekommen, da geht die Gewittersaison auch schon los.

Heute erreicht Deutschland von westen her eine Kaltfront, in deren Vorfeld sich teils kräftige Schauer und Gewitter entwickeln werden. Schon derzeit (08:40 Ortszeit) finden sich im Südwesten Deutschlands einige starke Regenschauer. Die Schauer und Gewitter werden sich im Tagesverlauf von Südwesten nach Nordosten verlagern, und bis zum Abend Brandenburg und auch Berlin erreicht haben.
Nach derzeitigem Stand der Vorhersagen besteht das größte Potential für kräftige Gewitter und Unwetter am Nachmittag und Abend in Sachsen, der Südhälfte Brandenburgs und teilen Sachsen-Anhalts.

Aufgrund der derzeitigen und prognostizierten Bedingungen in der Atmosphäre besteht die Hauptgefahr bei den heutigen Gewittern in Sturmböen und schweren Sturmböen zwischen 70 und 110km/h (diese können auch außerhalb von Gewittern entlang der Kaltfront auftreten!)
Außerdem muss in Schauern und Gewittern mit hohen Niederschlagsmengen von bis zu 15 Litern pro Quadratmeter in nur einer Stunde, sowie vereinzelt auch mit Hagel bis maximal 3cm in Durchmesser gerechnet werden.

Halten Sie sich nach Möglichkeit über die aktuelle Wetterlage am Laufenden.

Unten finden Sie die heutige “Convective Forecast” – Schwergewittervorhersage für Mitteleuropa.