2017.08.01 – Convective Forecast: Severe Thunderstorms Likely / Vorhersage: Unwetter zu Erwarten

 

A rather interesting severe weather situation in Central Europe today, and quite a potent one at that, with ESTOFEX issuing one of its rare Level 3 threats for northeastern Germany. While the cluster of thunderstorms that moved across Germany last night is slowly dying in the northeast, a new one is moving in from France in the southwest, with the strongest individual thunderstorms (as is usual for clusters) being at the southern edge.

There is a lot of potential in the atmosphere, and many parts along the route of the thunderstorms from the southwest to the northeast will reach temperatures over 30°C, some even close to 36°C.

This gives the thunderstorms the abilities to grow into really severe individual storms. The risks include storm gusts that may reach up to 100 to even 125km/h at times, hail with diameters of up to 5 – 8cm, flash flooding (with rain rates of around 40 liters in an hour) and an elevated risk for even strong tornadoes.

The storms will have the energy to continue well beyond sunset and even into the morning hours of Thursday.

++++++++++++++++++++++DEUTSCH+++++++++++++++++++++

Eine ziemlich interessante Unwetterlage heute in Mitteleuropa, die auch durchaus viel Potential aufweist, was ESTOFEX dazu gebracht hat, eine ihrer seltenen Level 3 Warnungen für den Nordosten Deutschlands auszugeben. Während der Gewitter-Cluster der sich letzte Nacht über Deutschland bewegt hat sich im Nordosten jetzt langsam auflöst, bewegt sich schon ein neuer aus Frankreich im Südwesten in das Bundesgebiet. Die stärksten individuellen Gewitter in diesem Cluster sind, wie es normal ist für solche Gruppierungen von Gewittern, derzeit am südlichen Rand zu finden.

Es ist heute viel Potential in der Luft, und viele Orte entlang der route der Gewitter von Südwest nach Nordost werden heute nochmals Höchstwerte über 30°CC, zum Teil auch 36°C, erreichen.

Das ermöglicht es den Gewittern zu kräftigen Unwettern heranzuwachsen. Die Hauptgefahren sind unter anderem Sturm- oder Orkanböen bis 100 oder sogar 125km/h, Hagel mit einem Durchmesser von bis zu 5-8cm, Starkregen (Regenraten bis 40 liter in einer Stunde) und ein erhöhtes Potential sogar für starke Tornados.

Die Unwetter werden die nötige Energie besitzen um bis tief in die Nacht durchzuhalten, manche sogar bis in die Morgenstunden des Donnerstags.

2017.08.01 – ESTOFEX Issues rare Level 3 Threat

ESTOFEX, in its thunderstorm forecast for today, has issued a rare Level 3 threat for parts of Germany, Poland, Russia and Lithuania.

The main risks in the Level 3 area over Germany and far NW Poland are severe or damaging storm gusts, large or very large hail, flash flooding and the potential for strong tornadoes.

The main risks in the Level 3 area over the far NE of Poland, Kaliningrad, and parts of Lithuania are severe or damaging storm gusts, large or very large hail, flash flooding, and the potential for strong tornadoes.

In the Level 2 area stretching all the way from France and Switzerland to Latvia and Lithuania, the main risks are severe wind gusts, large or very large hail, flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes.

In the Level 1 area, which reaches all the way from Spain to Estonia and Russia, there are the same risks as in the Level 2 area, however there is less potential for severe development.

2017.03.30 – Convective Forecast

An interesting situation today as hot air from the southwest meets a cold front advancing from the north sea, which will be located approximately from the German Saarland to the Baltic coast in the northeast of the country by the evening. Though no widespread thunderstorm activity is predicted (with exception of heat thunderstorms in Austria, especially over the Alps), individual thunderstorms are expected to form, and have the potential to become severe, with large hail, storm gusts, flash flooding and an increased possibility for tornado development.

Forecaster: LH

2016.06.28 – Convective Forecast: Increased Risk of Strong Thunderstorms / Unwetter Vorhersage: Erhöhte Gefahr vor Unwettern

++++++++++++++++ENGLISH+++++++++++++++

Thunderstorms are possible throughout all of central Europe today, fueled by the temperatures that will reach around 30°C in most parts, and kicked off by a cold front moving in from the west / southwest. Especially in the eastern and southern parts of the forecast area, the potential for strong thunderstorms is given.
The risk of severe thunderstorms is highest in Slovenia, where there may be (in the order of likeliness) torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and the potential for tornadoes given. To a lesser degree, the risk of severe storm gusts is also given in Slovenia.
Throughout most of the parts labeled “increased risk of strong thunderstorms”, the main risks will be severe wind gusts (up to 100km/h likely), Hail (up to 3cm in diameter likely) and heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding.
For the areas to the west, the main risk is torrential rainfall and the potential for (flash)flooding.

++++++++++++++++++++++++DEUTSCH++++++++++++++++++++++

Gewitter sind heute in ganz Mitteleuropa möglich, angeheizt durch die Wärme (vielerorts werden heute erneut um die 30°C erreicht), und ausgelöst durch eine sich aus Westen / Südwesten nähernde Kaltfront. Besonders in den östlichen und südlichen Teilen des Vorhersagegebiets besteht das Potential für Unwetter.
Die Gefahr vor Unwettern ist in Slowenien am höchsten. Dort besteht die Gefahr (sortiert nach absteigender Wahrscheinlichkeit) vor Starkregen, großem bis zu sehr großem Hagel, sowie dem Potential für Tornados. In geringerem Maße besteht auch in Slowenien die Gefahr vor Sturmböen.
In den Gebieten die mit “increased risk of strong thunderstorms” markiert wurden werden die Hauptgefahren Sturmböen (bis zu 100km/h zu erwarten), Hagel (bis zu 3cm in Durchmesser zu erwarten), sowie Starkregen mit der Gefahr vor Überflutungen sein.
In den Gegenden westlich davon geht die Hauptgefahr von Starkem Regen und damit einhergehenden Überflutungen aus.

 

Below is the convective forecast issued this morning.

Grün: Gewitter Möglich
Gelb: Gewitter Wahrscheinlich
Orange: Erhöhtes Potential für Unwetter

 

2017.06.27 – ESTOFEX Forecast & Thunderstorm Overview for Europe

(C) ESTOFEX European Storm Forecast Experiment. Forecast by DAFIS.

 

ESTOFEX decided to issue a level 2 for northeastern Spain and parts of France, with the main risks being severe wind gusts, excessive rainfall and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for N Spain, France, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, S Belgium, Luxemburg and the Czech Republic, with the main risks being severe wind gusts, large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was also issued for N Italy, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, with the main risks being severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation, as well as a

level 1 for E Ukraine and SW Russia, with the main risk being excessive precipitation.

 

Thunderstorms are likely throughout northern Spain, France and much of central Europe (except the Netherlands and northern Germany), and the Balkans today, as well as parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia.

2016.12.26 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 0700UTC on the 26.12.2016

There are currently 2 storm systems in the region.

Severe storm BARBARA will be moving through northern and central Europe today, bringing with it wind gusts in part over 200km/h. BARBARA is currently located in the North Sea with a central pressure of 951hPa. The storm field is largely located to the south of the storm’s center. Storm BARBARA is expected to move across Scandinavia and then reach parts of central Europe in the coming night. Severe storm warnings were issued for the North Sea Islands, where the storm is already raging at hurricane-force, and also for the north of the UK, where the currently highest wind gusts are being registered. Later, the coast of Norway and afterwards southern Norway, Sweden, the entirety of Denmark and some Baltic islands will be battered by hurricane-forced winds. In the coming night, the wind field will move further inland on mainland Europe (mainly Germany and Poland), and will also reach major cities such as Berlin. Storm warnings were issued. As the storm loses structure tomorrow, there may be storm gusts in other parts of Scandinavia, in the Baltic and in central eastern Europe as well; storm watches were issued.
Peak gusts of storm Barbara:
238km/h – Cairngorm Mountains, UK
183km/h – Aonach Mor, UK
176km/h – Cairnwell, UK
172km/h – Soervaag, DK
172km/h – Thorshavn, DK

A new severe storm has formed off the coast of Canada, with peak gusts exceeding 135km/h and a central pressure of 980hPa. It is expected to cross the Atlantic today and into tomorrow, but will miss mainland Europe and instead dissipate as it moves to the northeast of Iceland.

Below are the  ESC Overview as well as warnings and watches maps.

2016.12.25 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Issued at 0630UTC on the 25.12.2016

There is currently 1 storm system in the region.

Storm BARBARA, currently just to southwest of Iceland with a central pressure of 961hPa is moving towards Europe. It is currently the only storm system watched by ESC in Europe. BARBA is expected to bring hurricane-forced gusts to parts of Europe. A severe storm warning was issued for the northern parts of Ireland and the UK, where gusts above 125km/h are to be expected in the passage of the storm’s fronts today. The highest wind speeds, in part above 180km/h, are to be expected on exposed mountaintops in Scotland. A severe storm warning was also issued for the islands of the North Sea, where gusts may exceed 150km/h as the storm field moves through towards Scandinavia. Storm gusts are also to be expected in the rest of Ireland and the UK, Iceland, mainland Denmark, the North Sea coast of the Netherlands and Germany within 24 hours. BARBARA is expected to cross Scandinavia tomorrow, making a severe storm watch necessary for all of southern Norway and Sweden and some of the Baltic islands, and a regular storm watch for the remaining Baltic islands as well as the eastern and southern Baltic coasts and some of mainland Germany. See the warnings and watches map below for details.
BARBARA’s current peak gusts of today:
181km/h – Cairngorn Mountains, UK
165km/h – Cairnwell, UK
154km/h – Aonach Mor, UK

Below are the ESC Overview and warnings / watches maps:

2016.12.22 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 1300UTC on the 22.12.2016

There are currently two storm systems in the region.

A nameless storm is located near Iceland,  currently causing windy weather over the UK and in the mountains of Norway. It is, however, expected to weaken so much that it will not be considered a “storm” by ESC within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Storm ANTJE is located off the coast of Canada and will move across the northern Atlantic in the coming 24 hours, reaching Ireland and the NW of the UK towards the end of the 24-hour forecast period. Therefore, storm warnings have been issued for those regions. A severe storm watch has been issued for the North Sea Islands and a regular storm warning was issued for Iceland. The storm will then continue to move further towards Europe, making a storm warning necessary for the coast of Norway as well as parts of central Europe – the Netherlands, northwestern Germany, and Denmark. Warnings were also issued for the islands in the Baltic and some coastal areas in the Baltic States and in Finland.

Below are the ESC Overview, as well as the warnings and watches maps.

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Orange: Severe storm watch (>120km/h possible within 48h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 24h)

2016.12.21 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 0930UTC on the 21.12.2016.

There is currently 1 storm system in the region.

Storm ZARINA is located in the far north of the North Sea, with a central pressure of currently only 942hPa. A peak gust of 166km/h has been registered in Norway. ZARINA is currently battering the west coast of Norway and some North Sea Islands with hurricane-forced winds – ESC has therefore issued a severe storm warning for those regions. The storm is also impacting the rest of the North Sea, Iceland as well as the northern parts of the UK and Ireland; regular storm warnings were issued for these regions. As ZARINA continues to move towards the northeast, wind speeds will pick up in the Baltic within the next 24 hours as well, making a storm warning necessary for some land masses adjacent to the ocean. It is possible that storm gusts occur at the southern coast of Norway and in Denmark towards the end of the 24-hour forecast period, hence a storm watch has been issued for these regions.

Below are the ESC Overview as well as the warnings and watches maps.

Dark red: Severe storm warning (>120km/h likely within 24h)

Red: Storm warning (>70km/h likely within 24h)

Yellow: Storm watch (>70km/h possible within 48h)

2016.12.20 – Will there be a Christmas Storm?

Forecast models suggest that a series of powerful storms will sweep through northern and central Europe around Christmas – here, we will take a closer look at what is expected as of now.

Below is the ground forecast for midnight (UTC) of the 23rd of December. A powerful, well-defined low-pressure system will have formed over the northern Atlantic to the west of the British isles, embedded in a lively westerly flow. Most of the storms in the previous days were located further north, around Iceland, although their storm fields sometimes extended far enough to the south to affect parts of the UK. This new storm, however, will be on a direct path to Ireland and the UK. At this point, gusts in the storm may exceed 165km/h over the open ocean.

Ground forecast of the UK Met Office for 00UTC on the 23rd of December.

The storm will continue to intensify, and by 12UTC its center is predicted to be to the north of Ireland, with the low having deepened to a central pressure of 959hPa. Hurricane-forced storm gusts are to be expected in both the UK and Ireland – in the forecast map below, at 12UTC, the front system with the most intense winds has already passed Ireland and is located over the UK. The highest wind speeds are to be expected in the Scottish highlands and at the coasts of the northern UK.

GFS Forecast of the peak gusts at 12UTC on the 23rd of December.

In the afternoon and evening hours, the center of the low will move towards the northeast, however at the same time the area that the storm field covers will increase. At 18UTC, the most severe parts of the storm field will be located to the north of the British Isles (although it is possible that very intense hurricane-forced gusts over 140km/h affect the far north of the UK), and over the North Sea, where the system of fronts will be located. Large waves and high winds are to be expected at the coasts of Norway as well. In the evening, the fronts will be located off the North Sea coasts of the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium – along the coasts, gusts of around 100km/h are currently forecast, but except for Denmark, the storm field is not expected to move inland.

The storm will continue to rage especially in the northern half of the UK for the hours afterwards, and it will also be stormy in the Baltic and at some of its coasts. By the evening of the 24th, the storm will have weakened with its highest wind speeds in the North Sea and along the coast of Norway.

But at the same time, a new storm will form over the northern Atlantic to the west of the British Isles. It is expected to reach Ireland by 00UTC on the 25th, while still intensifying and moving towards the east. Gusts of up to 120km/h are to be expected in Ireland in that night, the UK might experience even higher wind speeds, especially in Scotland. The storm is not predicted to move to the northeast like the previous ones, but rather to keep heading east and cross over southern Scandinavia in the evening of the 25th, bringing extreme wind speeds of over 150km/h to the North Sea close to the shores of mainland Europe (the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark), and also gusts exceeding 120km/h to the Baltic. Unlike the previous storm, this time the storm field is expected to move far inland – Berlin, for example, is currently predicted to be hit by gusts around 110km/h.

GFS Peak gusts forecast for 00UTC on the 26th of December, 2016

The storm is then expected to quickly move away to the east, with a lively, at times stormy wind over most of eastern and eastern central Europe behind it.

That is a brief overview of what is forecast to happen as of now – keep in mind that it is still quite a while away and hence the forecasts may change quite significantly.