2018.09.21 – Storm ELENA reaching Netherlands, Germany

Storm ELENA will be moving across Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark today, bringing storm gusts which may exceed 160 km/h in especially exposed locations.

Wind speeds are just starting to pick up along the coasts and on the highest mountain peeks currently.

The storm is clearly visible from space, as seen in the latest MeteoSat image below.

More information about storm ELENA can be found here.

2018.09.21 – Storm in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands: Windstorm Update

Storm ELENA, which has crossed the UK in the night from Thursday to Friday and its currently making its way into the North Sea, will bring a good deal of wind to northern central Europe today.

The storm currently has a central pressure of 986 hPa and packs wind speeds of over 140km/h, however is expected to further intensify, eventually reaching peak gusts of up to 190km/h in its center.

Denmark will likely be the hardest hit in terms of wind speeds; especially in exposed locations and at the northwestern coast, peak gusts may reach full hurricane-force, possibly exceeding 160km/h.
The Netherlands should expect stormy conditions to commence within the next few hours, bringing wind speeds of 70-100km/h to much of the country and peaks of up to around 120km/h at the coasts.
In Germany, the North Sea coast and its islands should brace themselves for storm gusts in the range of 100 to 120km/h. Further inland, a strong cold front will move from west to east over the north of Germany, bringing not only a drop in temperatures by up to 20°C in very short time, but also potentially hazardous storm gusts which may locally exceed 100km/h.
This same cold front will move into Poland, affected especially the west and northwest of the country before it lessens in intensity overnight.
In Sweden and Norway, storm gusts are mainly expected at the southern coasts and in exposed locations such as mountain peaks, however there are uncertainties in the forecast and how far north the wind field will reach.

Below are the Windstorm overview and the windstorm warnings and watches for Europe.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.19 – Severe storm approaching Ireland and the UK: European Windstorm Update

Storm DORCAS is currently impacting especially the northern parts of the UK, bringing storm gusts with peaks of up to 159km/h (registered at Cairnwell, UK). However, this storm is expected to weaken as it moves away from the British Isles today, only bringing storm gusts to Iceland later on.

A new storm is on the way though; the currently still unnamed storm with a central pressure of 983 hPa is currently located to the southwest of the British Isles, already packing wind speeds over 115km/h and expected to further increase. Wind speeds in Ireland are expected to soon pick up, and hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected even far inland and in non-exposed locations. However, the coasts will by far experience the worst conditions, with seriously impressive wind speeds possibly exceeding 180km/h being predicted. By the afternoon, the storm will have moved on to the UK, where especially Scotland will receive widespread hurricane-forced winds; gusts are expected to reach up to and maybe even exceed 170km/h here as well. The remaining, more southern parts of the UK will also experience stormy conditions, however to a lesser extent than in Scotland. Through the night, the storm will move on, battering the coast of Norway.

A storm watch has been issued as well for the coasts of northwestern Europe due to a potential storm on Friday.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview, Warnings and Watches.

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.17 – Former Hurricane to hit UK, Ireland: ESC European Windstorm Update

Forecaster: LH

The former Hurricane “HELENE”, currently located to the southwest of Ireland with a central pressure of 987 hPa and peak wind gusts of around 120km/h, is expected to move across the British Isles today.

Compared to earlier forecasts, this latest forecast run suggests that the storm will be considerably weaker and will likely pose minimal risks to the areas it crosses. Ireland will be reached first, especially the western coast; peak storm gusts may reach 90 or 100km/h. The storm field is later expected to cross the southern UK, where storm gusts should not exceed 70km/h in most places. Highest wind speeds will be observed at exposed locations and at the coast.
Later, the wind field of former hurricane HELENE may also stripe the coast of the NetherlandsDenmark, and Norway; however, here, too, peak gusts should not exceed about 85km/h.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and the Storm Warnings and Watches:

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.15 – European Windstorm Update: Strong Storm to strike Scotland and Ireland

Forecaster: LH

There are two storm systems currently in the vicinity of Europe.

A weak storm has formed to the southwest of Iceland, currently holding wind speeds of just 70km/h and a central pressure of 998hPa. The storm is expected to slightly intensify as it approaches ICELAND as the day progresses. In about 12 hours, the first storm gusts may reach the island, and wind speeds will stay elevated, especially at exposed locations, for hours to come.

The still unnamed storm located to the west of the British Isles has intensified over night, now holding wind speeds of around 110km/h and with its central pressure having dropped to 1008 hPa. The storm is expected to further intensify as it makes its way towards IRELAND and the UK.
Wind speeds will start picking up at the western coast of Ireland this evening. Especially the western and northern coasts of Ireland will be affected; here, gusts up to or exceeding 110km/h are possible. Wind conditions will stay calmer further inland, but there may still be storm gusts. Storm warnings and watches have been issued accordingly (see below).
The wind field of the storm will reach Scotland in the coming night; especially in the Scottish Highlands, the Isles and the coasts, partially hurricane-forced gusts are to be expected. Wind speeds may exceed 120km/h. As it is still unclear how far south the wind field will stretch, a storm watch has been issued for large parts of the UK.
Between 36 and 48 hours from now, the storm field is expected to reach the coast of Norway, where gusts of around 100km/h are to be expected.
Due to uncertainties in prediction, no forecasts are given for more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC European Windstorm Overview and Storm Warnings & Watches.

 

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.09.14 – ESC European Windstorm Update: Storm headed for Ireland and Scotland; Storm watches issued

Forecaster: LH

There is currently one storm system in the proximity of Europe. The unnamed storm which had a central pressure of 1012 hPa at 18:00 UTC and currently packs estimated peak gusts of around 100km/h is expected to further intensify as it moves eastwards in the next 36 hours.

Ireland will be the first to be affected by the storm, with gusts of up to 110km/h possible along much of the coastline, though weaker winds are to be expected inland. The storm will continue to move northeastwards, affecting Scotland and bringing hurricane-forced gusts especially to the highlands, coasts and islands; gusts of up to 130km/h are very well possible, locally wind speeds may even exceed 130km/h.

The storm is expected to continue moving northeastwards and may later affect Norway, however due to uncertainties in predictions, ESC watches are not issued more than 48 hours in advance.

Below are the ESC overview, as well as ESC European Windstorm Warnings & Watches.

 

This forecast is solely for informative purposes and though is done to the best of the forecaster’s ability, no warranty is given for the accuracy of the information.

2018.08.24 – WARNUNG: Waldbrand bei Berlin; Rauch in Berlin, Potsdam /// ADVISORY: Forest fire near Berlin, Smoke in Berlin, Potsdam (German & English)

Spezialwarnung für Berlin, Potsdam, Potsdam-Mittelmark, Teltow-Fläming. 2018.08.24 um 05:45MESZ

Special Advisory for Berlin, Potsdam, Potsdam-Mittelmark, Teltow-Fläming. 2018.08.24 at 05:45 CEST

www.milk-weather.org

 

Aufgrund eines WALDBRANDES nahe Treuenbrietzen hat sich eine Rauchwolke ausgebreitet, die derzeit Berlin, Potsdam, Potsdam-Mittelmark und Teltow Fläming betrifft.

VERHALTEN:

Vermeiden Sie sofern möglich, die verrauchte Luft einzuatmen. Schließen Sie Fenster und Türen, und schalten sie Klima- und Lüftungsanlagen ab. Halten Sie sich über offizielle Kanäle informiert.

VORHERSAGE:

Es ist schwierig, die weitere Rauchentwicklung zu prognostizieren. Der Waldbrand hat sich über Nach von 60 auf 400 Hektar Fläche ausgeweitet. Löscharbeiten werden, da er sich auf einem munitionsbelasteten Gebiet befindet, zusätzlich erschwert.
Die Lage unter der Annahme, dass die Rauchentwicklung auf dem derzeitigen Niveau verbleibt: Im Laufe der Früh ist weiterhin mit rauchigen Bedingungen zu rechnen, zwischendurch kann es vor allem in weiter entfernten Gebieten (vor allem Berlin) eventuell auch zu einer geringfügigen Verbesserung kommen. Am Nachmittag zieht eine Wetterfront durch, allerdings ist Berechnungen zufolge nicht zwingend mit Regen zu rechnen. Solle etwas Regen auftreten, kann dieser zumindest kurz- bis mittelfristig die Luft reinigen. Ohne Regen ist wegen der Änderung der Windrichtung eventuell eine stärkere Belastung möglich.

Diese Angaben sind ohne Gewähr und sollten nur dazu verwendet werden, sich zu informieren. Bitte befolgen Sie offiziellen Anweisungen der Behörden und halten Sie sich durch Radio und andere Medien auf dem Laufenden. Push-Benachrichtigungen können sie über die Katastrophen-Warn Apps „NINA“ und „KatWarn“ erhalten.

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++ENGLISH++++++++++++++++++++++

Due to a FOREST FIRE near Treuenbrietzen a smoke cloud has spread and is currently affecting Berlin, Potsdam, Potsdam-Mittelmark and Teltow Fläming.

WHAT TO DO?

Avoid, as much as possible, to breathe in the smoky air. Close windows and doors and turn off air-conditioning and ventilation units. Keep yourself informed through official outlets.

PREDICTION:

It is difficult to predict the further smoke development. The forest fire spread from 60 to 400 Hectares overnight. Due to the fire being situated on land with old, unexploded ammunition, the fire-fighting operations are difficult.
Under the assumption that the forest fire will continue at the current level: throughout the morning, smoky conditions are to be expected, though from time to time, especially in areas further away (mainly Berlin), there may be minor improvements in air quality. In the afternoon, a weather front is expected to move through the region, however according to the forecast models, rain isn’t necessarily expected. Should there be rain, it can help to clean the air short- to mid-term. Without rain and with the shift in wind direction, a greater presence of smoke is possible.

No liability is assumed. This statement is solely for information purposes. Please follow orders, announcements and suggestions by the authorities and keep yourself informed through Radio and other media. Push-Notifications can be received via the disaster warning apps “NINA” and “KatWarn”.

2018.07.28 – Thunderstorm Forecast: Hail, Storm gusts in Central Europe, especially Germany & Switzerland

High temperatures combined with relatively high humidity (thanks to increased evaporation) will provide a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorms in much of central Europe today. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to move over the BeNeLux and into Germany currently (08.40 CEST), and will continue to move eastwards across Germany as the day progresses. They are expected to further intensify, with the potential for some storms to bring severe weather conditions. The possibility of storms clustering together to form long-lived “mesoscale convective systems” is also given. The main risks stemming from today’s thunderstorms are Large Hail with diameters potentially exceeding 2cm, as well as storm gusts which may exceed 120km/h in some thunderstorms, especially in northern Germany, and exceed 90km/h in many cases. Heavy rainfall is also not to be ruled out, with rain rates of up to 30l/sq. m in an hour certainly a realistic possibility. The potential for widespread flash-flooding is limited, however, due to the speed at which the thunderstorms are expected to move and the nature of the the individual storm cells.
In Switzerland and southwestern Germany, conditions look favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms, bringing a further elevated potential for severe weather.

2018.07.21 – Feeling the Heat in Scandinavia

Temperatures have well exceeded 30°C in much of Scandinavia for the past several days, including as far north as the Arctic circle. Below is a map of the maximum temperatures recorded on the 18th of July, though past days have all brought similarly intense heat to Scandinavian countries:

Image from www.kachelmannwetter.com

 

The reason for these unusually warm temperatures is a high-pressure ridge which is currently situated over northeastern Europe, including mainly the Scandinavian countries of Sweden and Finland, the north of Norway and the northwest of Russia, and bringing temperatures as high as 33.5°C in Bardufoss (69° N in Norway, registered 18th of July).

Image from www.wetter3.de

 

And for now, the hot weather is expected to persist. The heat, and especially the dryness (which is a problem in much of Europe currently) are posing some serious challenges, with numerous wildfires having broken out in Sweden, and at least in the upcoming days, little relief looks to be on its way.