2017.05.30 – Heat and Thunderstorms in Germany

A series of very warm days was ended yesterday as intense thunderstorms erupted all throughout central Europe.

ESTOFEX had issued a level 2 for eastern Germany, and a level one for much of the rest of the country in the morning.

Throughout central and eastern Germany, severe thunderstorms brought hail, storm gusts and flooding with them. In the state of Brandenburg, a tornado was reported.

2017.03.27 – Cyclone Debbie makes Landfall in Australia

Cyclone “Debbie” made landfall in Australia today, packing winds of around 150km/h and gusting to over 200km/h. Thankfully, the storm is moving ashore in a fairly sparsely populated part of the country.

“Debbie” is moving quite slowly, making the most significant risk from the storm the rain, rather than the wind. In less than three days, over 400 liters of rain per square meter are expected to fall in some regions – below is the latest forecast map by the German weather service DWD:

2017.03.23 – Snow in Spain

A low pressure are by the name of “GREGOR” has brought winter weather to parts of Spain. Snow fell down to areas only 500 meters above sea level. Thunderstorms with sleet and strong snowfall are still spread over the Iberian peninsula. The winter weather, which was caused by an advance of cold air from the Arctic into the region, resulted in school being cancelled for over 8,000 students.

The low pressure area will continue to linger in southwestern Europe and bring strong showers and thunderstorms to the region in the coming days. The Balearic Islands, for example, should expect thunderstorms with a lot of rain and also possible storm gusts on Friday.


2017.02.12 – RABAT: Psbl. Flash Flooding, Storm Gusts

What is the forecast?

    Forecasts indicate that tonight there may be a potentially dangerous weather situation. An area of very intense rain is expected to move through, accompanied by storm gusts and possibly thunderstorms.
What may happen?
    A lot of rain is expected to fall in a short period of time, meaning that flash flooding may occur in parts of Rabat, making it difficult or impossible to move from one place to another, especially on the road.
   Storm gusts are currently expected to sweep through the city together with the rain – these may send things flying from balconies or rooftops, which can be potentially dangerous. There is also the chance that branches and / or trees may fall, which could also damage / block the tram lines.
   In the case of thunderstorms, the weather phenomena (i.e. the rain and wind) may be intensified.
How likely is it to happen?
   As of now, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact intensity and time. What can be said is that tonight is expected to be rainy and windy. There is currently an 85% chance that the rain will be quite intense for one or two hours. It can also be said that it will be windy in the evening, and that there is a chance of around 75% of storm gusts exceeding 75km/h, and around 60% chance of gusts over 90km/h.
    As of now, this front is predicted to arrive between 6 and 7:30pm, with the peak being about 1 to 1.5 hours after the arrival of the front. Most of the rain should be gone by 9:30pm.
What to do?
   You’ll probably want to stay indoors anyway.
PLEASE NOTE that there is always uncertainty when predicting the weather, and nothing is ever 100% guaranteed. I wrote this email solely for information purposes and out of personal interest and, although having made the forecast to the best of my abilities, do not take any responsibility for its correctness or any actions that are taken as a result. Cheers!
New information will be posted at www.milk-weather.org!

2017.02.10 – Thunderstorm Probability for RABAT

This is experimental; in this case, I used numerical forecast models to predict the most difficult to predict storms: thunderstorms. You cannot forecast individual thunderstorms, our technology isn’t that advanced yet, but you can say how likely thunderstorms are to form, where they would form, and what their main risks will likely be.
Below, I will try to outline some of the time periods during which thunderstorms are possible or even likely in the near future:

Fri, 20:00 – Sat, 13:00: Increased chance of thunderstorms

Sun, 22:00 – Mon, 10:00: Increased chance of thunderstorms
Mon, 10:00 – Mon, 12:00: Thunderstorms likely
Mon, 12:00 – Mon, 17:00: Thunderstorms possible
Wed, 17:00 – Wed, 21:00: Thunderstorms possible
Thu, 06:00 – Thu, 12:00: Thunderstorms possible
Thu, 12:00 – Thu, 15:00: Thunderstorms likely
Thu, 15:00 – Fri, 00:00: Thunderstorms likely, strong thunderstorms possible
Fri, 00:00 – Fri, 03:00: Thunderstorms possible
Sat, 15:00 – Sat, 18:00: Thunderstorms possible
Sat, 21:00 – Sun, 00:00: Thunderstorms possible

Strong Rainfall expected in Western Mediterranean

An upper low pressure system is expected to move over the western Mediterranean today and tomorrow, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms with partly extreme amounts of rain. The upper low will advect cold air from much further north to the Mediterranean, where the temperature difference between the surface of the ocean and the cold air up in the atmosphere will fuel the formation of showers and thunderstorms.

Geopotential and temperature at the 500hPa level. Map by wetter3.de


The first showers and thunderstorms have started forming around the balearic islands. The center of the low pressure system is expected to gradually move towards the east, being located between Sardinia and Tunisia in the coming night, and so the rain will also move east. The rain is rotating counter-clockwise around the center of the low, and is expected to push against the north African coast from the north, and the mountains of Corsica from the east, resulting in the highest amounts of precipitation being expected there. Within two days, well over 100 liters of rain per square meter may fall in these regions, as seen on the map below:

Accumulated precipitation until Friday, 00UTC (48 hours from init), as predicted by the “HD Deutschland” numerical model of Kachelmannwetter

Expected precipitation in Corsica within init+48h until 00UTC on Friday. Deutschland HD numerical model of Kachelmannwetter

2017.02.07 – Powerful Mistral in the Western Mediterranean

A powerful Mistral raged in the Western Mediterranean yesterday. The Mistral is a powerful wind that moves south through the valley of the river Rhone and out onto the Mediterranean, caused by significantly lower air pressure at one end of the valley compared to the other. Currently, a low pressure area is located over Italy, providing the exact conditions necessary for the formation of a mistral – you can clearly see the low pressure system on the 00UTC UK Met Office ground analysis:

Peak gusts in southern France and the gulf of Lyon reached hurricane force, with one station reporting 161km/h. The Mistral has largely dissipated since yesterday.

Massive Storm in the Atlantic

A massive storm is currently moving through the northern Atlantic, with a central pressure of 929hPa and wind gusts exceeding 200km/h at its southern flank. The storm is expected to move towards the northeast and bring storm gusts of over 100km/h to large parts of the UK and Ireland.
The current satellite image gives us a stunning view of the storm:


2016.12.26 – ESC European Windstorm Overview / Warnings / Watches

This is the ESC European Windstorm Overview, issued at 0700UTC on the 26.12.2016

There are currently 2 storm systems in the region.

Severe storm BARBARA will be moving through northern and central Europe today, bringing with it wind gusts in part over 200km/h. BARBARA is currently located in the North Sea with a central pressure of 951hPa. The storm field is largely located to the south of the storm’s center. Storm BARBARA is expected to move across Scandinavia and then reach parts of central Europe in the coming night. Severe storm warnings were issued for the North Sea Islands, where the storm is already raging at hurricane-force, and also for the north of the UK, where the currently highest wind gusts are being registered. Later, the coast of Norway and afterwards southern Norway, Sweden, the entirety of Denmark and some Baltic islands will be battered by hurricane-forced winds. In the coming night, the wind field will move further inland on mainland Europe (mainly Germany and Poland), and will also reach major cities such as Berlin. Storm warnings were issued. As the storm loses structure tomorrow, there may be storm gusts in other parts of Scandinavia, in the Baltic and in central eastern Europe as well; storm watches were issued.
Peak gusts of storm Barbara:
238km/h – Cairngorm Mountains, UK
183km/h – Aonach Mor, UK
176km/h – Cairnwell, UK
172km/h – Soervaag, DK
172km/h – Thorshavn, DK

A new severe storm has formed off the coast of Canada, with peak gusts exceeding 135km/h and a central pressure of 980hPa. It is expected to cross the Atlantic today and into tomorrow, but will miss mainland Europe and instead dissipate as it moves to the northeast of Iceland.

Below are the  ESC Overview as well as warnings and watches maps.